# What is prediction.click?

prediction.click shows you whether Polymarket's short-term crypto Up/Down markets are mispriced — and lets you trade on that alpha in one click.

## The Problem

Polymarket lists hundreds of 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour binary options on crypto prices (e.g., "Will BTC go up in the next 5 minutes?"). These markets are often mispriced because:

* Market makers can't keep up with fast-moving crypto prices
* Short-term markets expire quickly, leaving less time for prices to correct
* Most traders rely on gut feeling, not math

## Our Solution

We compute a mathematically derived **fair value** for every market, every second. The gap between our fair value and the market price is called the **Alpha**.

```
Alpha = Fair Value - Market Price
```

When the Alpha is positive, the market is underpriced — that's your opportunity.

## How It Works

```
Binance (real-time crypto price)
        |
        v
  Pricing Engine (updates every 1 second)
        |
        v
  Fair Value = "What should this market be worth?"
        |
        v
  Alpha = Fair Value - Polymarket Price
        |
        v
  Dashboard shows: BUY / HOLD / SELL
```

1. We stream real-time spot prices from Binance (\~100ms latency)
2. Our pricing model computes the true probability using a Student-t fat-tail distribution
3. We compare this fair value to the current Polymarket price
4. If the Alpha is big enough (>3%), we show a **BUY** signal

## What You See

| Element               | What it means                                     |
| --------------------- | ------------------------------------------------- |
| **Alpha %** (green)   | Market is underpriced — potential buy opportunity |
| **Alpha %** (red)     | Market is overpriced — no action needed           |
| **Fair Value**        | Our model's probability estimate (e.g., 53%)      |
| **Market Price**      | Current Polymarket price (e.g., 49%)              |
| **BUY UP / BUY DOWN** | One-click trade buttons                           |
| **P\&L**              | Your profit or loss on open positions             |

## Supported Markets

* **Assets**: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB
* **Timeframes**: 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours
* **Updates**: Every 1 second via WebSocket

Visit [prediction.click](https://prediction.click) to get started.


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